“Total Knee Replacement: Get it While You Can”

Each year, the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) holds its annual meeting. This year, two presentations highlighted a pending “perfect storm”: the demand for (total knee arthroplasty) will increase dramatically while the supply of Orthopaedic Surgeons trained to do them will decrease sharply.

In a paper entitled, “Joint Replacement Access in 2016: A Supply Side Crisis,” 1 Dr. Thomas K Fehring et. al. stated that “demand for arthroplasty is expected to double in 10 years.” By 2016, this translates into an annual demand of 1,046,000 knee replacement procedures. At the same time, the expected supply of Orthopaedic surgeons is expected to fall such that if they were to work at current rates, they will only be able to perform 287,759 knee replacements, leaving many “waiting in pain”.

In a related presentation, “National Projections of Younger Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement,” 2 Dr. Steven Kurtz, et. al. explained the “demand side” of this equation. Overall demand for knee replacement is growing, but not just because the population is aging (i.e. a greater number of people over 65), but also because the demand for knee replacement in folks under 65 is growing as well. That is, it will become increasingly more common for folks under 65 to be total knee replacement recipients.

Hip replacement was also highlighted in both studies; however the shortfall is not estimated to be as severe. Ultimately, both papers warn that something must be done to alleviate this pending crisis.

References:

1 Odum S.M., Iorio R., Fehring T.K. “Joint Replacement Access in 2016: A Supply Side Crisis” 2009 AAOS Annual Meeting”, Poster Presentation P043

2 Kurtz S., Lau E., Ong K., Kelly, M.P., Bozic K.J. “National Projections of Younger Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement”, 2009 AAOS Annual Meeting, Podium No. 183

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